Sorry I missed saying hello today :-) This is the part people should be paying attention to - capital is here, but it isn’t flowing broadly.
The 19% of households driving 51% of leisure lodging spend feels like more than a luxury trend.... it feels like a warning label. Hospitality has always been aspirational, but if the entire growth story depends on the top of the K continuing to spend, we should probably be asking harder questions about what happens to the rest of the market.
I loved the point about the edge being simpler than we make it: sleep, programming, differentiation, execution. But I’m especially interested in your question about who is actually solving for the lower part of the K.
Because that may be the bigger long-term opportunity: not just building more expensive experiences for fewer people, but figuring out how hospitality can still create restoration, belonging, and value for the guests who are increasingly being priced out of the story
Outstanding summary- and interesting numbers around attendance and by whom… Very curious to see what Day 2 reveals. I’m also curious about the mixed messages regarding the World Cup bump in general…
The World Cup conversation was a little Orwellian to say the least, sans vaporization, like in the book. A representative from the National Travel and Tourism Office was the one voice in the room painting an unambiguously rosy picture: World Cup, America 250 (I mean, I haven't seen Milli Vanilli in a while - sad to miss Brett Michaels - "Every Rose Has Its Thorn" as he'd say), LA Olympics, the whole mega-events pipeline. To be fair, his job is to be a cheerleader.
But the data people told a different story. Aside from predicting that the Germans would make it to the finals, Jan Freitag from CoStar/STR said the World Cup will be "more an ADR event than an occupancy event." Translation: rates will go up, but rooms won't be filled. And this is happening against a backdrop where international travel to the U.S. is down nearly 10% through April. Canadian travel has fallen 25% last year, plus another 11% this year. I don't blame them: speaking for the entire nation of Canada, would you?
I'm writing this from a Metro-North train, and I'll be honest: I cannot imagine paying NJ Transit (which is not as nice as Metro-North) $150 for a round-trip ticket from Penn Station to MetLife Stadium. If that's the fan experience, maybe the wealthy World Cup fans will have a brief moment to see how the lower half of the K-Shaped vibe.
More on this in Day Two later...or tomorrow am - I was up too late last night.
Sorry I missed saying hello today :-) This is the part people should be paying attention to - capital is here, but it isn’t flowing broadly.
The 19% of households driving 51% of leisure lodging spend feels like more than a luxury trend.... it feels like a warning label. Hospitality has always been aspirational, but if the entire growth story depends on the top of the K continuing to spend, we should probably be asking harder questions about what happens to the rest of the market.
I loved the point about the edge being simpler than we make it: sleep, programming, differentiation, execution. But I’m especially interested in your question about who is actually solving for the lower part of the K.
Because that may be the bigger long-term opportunity: not just building more expensive experiences for fewer people, but figuring out how hospitality can still create restoration, belonging, and value for the guests who are increasingly being priced out of the story
There are some people working on some good solutions. Maybe they’ll chime in here.
Outstanding summary- and interesting numbers around attendance and by whom… Very curious to see what Day 2 reveals. I’m also curious about the mixed messages regarding the World Cup bump in general…
The World Cup conversation was a little Orwellian to say the least, sans vaporization, like in the book. A representative from the National Travel and Tourism Office was the one voice in the room painting an unambiguously rosy picture: World Cup, America 250 (I mean, I haven't seen Milli Vanilli in a while - sad to miss Brett Michaels - "Every Rose Has Its Thorn" as he'd say), LA Olympics, the whole mega-events pipeline. To be fair, his job is to be a cheerleader.
But the data people told a different story. Aside from predicting that the Germans would make it to the finals, Jan Freitag from CoStar/STR said the World Cup will be "more an ADR event than an occupancy event." Translation: rates will go up, but rooms won't be filled. And this is happening against a backdrop where international travel to the U.S. is down nearly 10% through April. Canadian travel has fallen 25% last year, plus another 11% this year. I don't blame them: speaking for the entire nation of Canada, would you?
I'm writing this from a Metro-North train, and I'll be honest: I cannot imagine paying NJ Transit (which is not as nice as Metro-North) $150 for a round-trip ticket from Penn Station to MetLife Stadium. If that's the fan experience, maybe the wealthy World Cup fans will have a brief moment to see how the lower half of the K-Shaped vibe.
More on this in Day Two later...or tomorrow am - I was up too late last night.
Excellent commentary and detail. Felt like I was there by reading this. Thank you
Didn't you love that Blackouts were mentioned! LOL
Excellent summary! You covered a lot!!!
Wish you were here! See you soon my friend
Thanks for such a deep dive into the conversations!
You are most welcome. Glad you enjoyed my take from the front row